| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | homeTeam | awayTeam | expected_margin_home_minus_away | expected_total_points | implied_home_points | implied_away_points | Actual spread | Vegas spread - home team expected | Did the model cover? | Predict correct outcome? |
2 | New Mexico State | Sam Houston | 9.3 | 51.3 | 30.3 | 21 | 27 | -1.5 | Yes | Yes |
3 | Delaware | Western Kentucky | 5.7 | 56.7 | 31.2 | 25.5 | -3 | 2.5 | No | No |
4 | South Florida | Charlotte | 22.7 | 56.8 | 39.8 | 17 | 28 | 28.5 | Yes | Yes |
5 | San JoseState | New Mexico | 3.1 | 50.5 | 26.8 | 23.7 | 7 | 2.5 | Yes | Yes |
6 | San Diego State | Colorado State | 14 | 55.7 | 34.8 | 20.8 | 21 | 4.5 | Yes | Yes |
7 | BYU | West Virginia | 23.9 | 55.1 | 39.5 | 15.6 | 14 | 18.5 | No | Yes |
8 | Georgia | Kentucky | 27 | 52.3 | 39.6 | 12.6 | 21 | 19.5 | Yes | Yes |
9 | UAB | Army | 2.3 | 51.3 | 26.8 | 24.5 | -18 | -6.5 | No | No |
10 | Michigan | Wisconsin | 17.9 | 54.8 | 36.3 | 18.4 | 14 | 17.5 | No | Yes |
11 | Purdue | Illinois | -4.2 | 52.4 | 24.1 | 28.3 | -16 | -7 | No | Yes |
12 | Baylor | Kansas State | 7.3 | 53.7 | 30.5 | 23.2 | 1 | -6.5 | Yes | Yes |
13 | Ball State | Ohio | -12.6 | 51.2 | 19.3 | 31.9 | 6 | -14.5 | No | No |
14 | Pittsburgh | Boston College | 6.3 | 53.4 | 29.8 | 23.6 | 41 | 6.5 | Yes | Yes |
15 | Navy | Air Force | 20.4 | 56 | 38.2 | 17.8 | 3 | 13.5 | No | Yes |
16 | North Carolina | Clemson | -6.1 | 51.8 | 22.8 | 28.9 | -28 | -15.5 | No | Yes |
17 | Cincinnati | Iowa State | 0.9 | 52.2 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 8 | 1.5 | Yes | Yes |
18 | Temple | UTSA | -2.6 | 51.9 | 24.7 | 27.3 | 6 | -6.5 | Yes | No |
19 | Virginia Tech | Wake Forest | -0.3 | 50.3 | 25 | 25.3 | -7 | 4.5 | Yes | Yes |
20 | Massachusetts | Western Michigan | -1.2 | 50.1 | 24.5 | 25.6 | -18 | -12.5 | No | Yes |
21 | Arizona | Oklahoma State | 26.1 | 55.7 | 40.9 | 14.8 | 28 | 23.5 | Yes | Yes |
22 | Akron | Central Michigan | -1.2 | 52 | 25.4 | 26.6 | 6 | -6.5 | Yes | No |
23 | Northern Illinois | Miami (OH) | 3.2 | 52.8 | 28 | 24.8 | -11 | -4.5 | No | No |
24 | App State | Oregon State | 7 | 53.6 | 30.3 | 23.3 | 4 | 2.5 | Yes | Yes |
25 | SMU | Syracuse | 21.6 | 55.6 | 38.6 | 17 | 23 | -17.5 | Yes | Yes |
26 | Buffalo | Eastern Michigan | 17.9 | 53.9 | 35.9 | 18 | 1 | -9.5 | No | Yes |
27 | Georgia State | James Madison | -20.1 | 46.3 | 13.1 | 33.2 | -7 | -18.5 | No | Yes |
28 | UConn | Florida International | 12.7 | 51.9 | 32.3 | 19.6 | 41 | 6.5 | Yes | Yes |
29 | Louisville | Virginia | 10.2 | 55.2 | 32.7 | 22.5 | -3 | 6.5 | No | No |
30 | Northwestern | UL Monroe | 12.5 | 54.4 | 33.5 | 21 | 35 | 13.5 | No | Yes |
31 | Maryland | Washington | -0.6 | 50.6 | 25 | 25.6 | -4 | -5.5 | Yes | Yes |
32 | UCLA | Penn State | -29.9 | 47.8 | 9 | 38.9 | 5 | -23.5 | No | No |
33 | Alabama | Vanderbilt | 7.4 | 52.8 | 30.1 | 22.7 | 16 | 13.5 | No | Yes |
34 | Notre Dame | Boise State | 25.2 | 53.5 | 39.4 | 14.2 | 21 | 21.5 | No | Yes |
35 | Florida | Texas | -12.5 | 51.7 | 19.6 | 32.1 | 8 | -4.5 | No | No |
36 | Oklahoma | Kent State | 54.9 | 58 | 56.4 | 1.5 | 44 | 46.5 | No | Yes |
37 | Arkansas State | Texas State | -12.2 | 49.5 | 18.6 | 30.8 | 1 | -14.5 | Yes | No |
38 | Nebraska | Michigan State | 25.4 | 57.1 | 41.3 | 15.9 | 11 | 12.5 | No | Yes |
39 | Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina | 24.7 | 56.8 | 40.8 | 16.1 | 40 | 18.5 | Yes | Yes |
40 | Troy | South Alabama | 10.1 | 53.2 | 31.7 | 21.5 | 7 | -2.5 | Yes | Yes |
41 | Houston | Texas Tech | -14.1 | 51.9 | 18.9 | 33 | -24 | -11.5 | Yes | Yes |
42 | Rice | Florida Atlantic | 8.4 | 54.2 | 31.3 | 22.9 | -6 | 4.5 | No | No |
43 | Wyoming | UNLV | -6.2 | 54.4 | 24.1 | 30.3 | -14 | -4.5 | Yes | Yes |
44 | Florida State | Miami | -4.2 | 54.9 | 25.4 | 29.5 | -6 | -2.5 | Yes | Yes |
45 | UCF | Kansas | 6.1 | 57.3 | 31.7 | 25.6 | -7 | -3.5 | No | No |
46 | Texas A&M | Mississippi State | 12.1 | 51.7 | 31.9 | 19.8 | 22 | 17.5 | No | Yes |
47 | TCU | Colorado | 11.6 | 54.3 | 33 | 21.3 | 14 | 14.5 | No | Yes |
48 | Ohio State | Minnesota | 26 | 56.6 | 41.3 | 15.3 | 39 | 23.5 | Yes | Yes |
49 | Memphis | Tulsa | 28.8 | 55.1 | 41.9 | 13.2 | 38 | 21.5 | Yes | Yes |
50 | California | Duke | 0.6 | 52.2 | 26.4 | 25.8 | -24 | -3.5 | No | No |
51 | Fresno State | Nevada | 23.8 | 50.9 | 37.3 | 13.6 | 3 | 13.5 | No | Yes |
52 | ||||||||||
53 | 24/50 | 37 | ||||||||
54 | 48% | 74% |